The Odds
Every man's five Lisbon rounds, resampled two hundred thousand times. No opinions, no margin, no favours — which is exactly why they are worth arguing with.
Two men are in this tournament. The other five share a combined 0.0% across two hundred thousand simulations — not a rounding, but a number that did not occur once. Full report →
Beswick is favourite because his mean net is 74.8, better than two shots clear of the field. He is also the most volatile man in it, which over five rounds is an asset rather than a flaw — a scoring competition only asks that the good days are very good.
| Jack | Alexei | Liam | Guy | Gus | Tom | Tim | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack | · | 51% | 58% | 72% | 41% | 55% | 53% |
| Alexei | 49% | · | 57% | 69% | 41% | 54% | 51% |
| Liam | 42% | 43% | · | 60% | 37% | 49% | 44% |
| Guy | 28% | 31% | 40% | · | 29% | 41% | 31% |
| Gus | 59% | 59% | 63% | 71% | · | 60% | 60% |
| Tom | 45% | 46% | 51% | 59% | 40% | · | 46% |
| Tim | 47% | 49% | 56% | 69% | 40% | 54% | · |
Beswick starts favourite against every man in the field. Church included, at 59–41. There is not a single match-up on this board in which he begins behind.
Mitchell starts underdog against every man in the field. His best price on the board is 41% against Cartwright, who has already beaten him twice.
The captains meet at Wilkinson 60, Mitchell 40 — and they have met once before, on the last afternoon in Lisbon, where Wilkinson won three and one.
There is no market on the cup, because the teams do not yet exist.
Wilkinson and Mitchell pick on the Wednesday night. The moment the last name is called, the six sessions are run through fifty thousand simulated tournaments at the real formats and the real allowances, and this page gets a win probability, a most likely scoreline and a price on 8—8.
It will be up before anybody goes to bed.
The data. Five counting rounds per man from Lisbon 2025, gross and net. Six players have a genuine record. Forton has none at all.
The assumption. Net scoring is roughly stationary if a handicap is accurate — improve, and your index falls to match. So the Lisbon net distributions stand as an estimate of 2026 net form. Gross is adjusted one-for-one by the change in index since.
The method. Each player's scoring is treated as a normal distribution with their observed mean and spread. Two hundred thousand five-round tournaments. Prices are the raw probability with no margin, which is more than any real book would give you.
What it does not know. Course difficulty at Redstone, Castlegar or Balfour — these are relative prices, not predicted scores. Altitude. Whether Cartwright's twelve-month-old index still means anything at all. Whether Stretton's shoulder survives six days. And Forton, whose entire line is a guess wearing a number.
Every price on this page moves on Wednesday evening. Men's night is the first real evidence anybody has, and it is played before a single point is available.